Investment Case Update: June 23, 2026
Price: $38.67 (6/23/26)
Market Capitalization: $3.1B
Enterprise Value: $8.3B
What the Company Does
Shift4 provides payment processing and business intelligence software with a focus on the hospitality and entertainment sectors, processing over $200B in payments annually. Shift4 also owns TheGivingBlock, which is the leading facilitator of charitable giving in cryptocurrency, and processed over $100MM in donations in 2025 with an average gift size of ~$11K. With the recent acquisition of Global Blue, FOUR is also now a leading provider in tax-free shopping for some of the world’s largest luxury retail brands. Shift4 has historically operated in the United States but has started to expand internationally and now commands a presence in more than 75 countries.
Why We Own It
Shift4 provides sticky, and likely growing, cash flows at a compelling valuation with an impressive, highly aligned management team in a large addressable market. Former CEO Jared Isaacman founded the company in his teens and grew it in a capital-efficient way until he transitioned to becoming the company’s Executive Chairman in June 2025. Between the end of 2020 and 2025, total employee headcount grew ~4.8x, while Adjusted EBITDA per employee (i.e. productivity) grew ~2.3x over the same period. Over the company’s first sixteen years, Shift4 grew organically with neither outside capital nor acquisitions and has increased revenue by a double-digit percentage in all 27 years of the company’s history, including through downturns. Recently, management has created value through disciplined, cost-efficient acquisitions and reinvestments, deploying $5.9B since June 2020, while consistently earning returns above their cost of capital. While recent acquisitions may weigh on near-term capital efficiency, FOUR has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to thrive during volatility, as it has grown revenue and Adjusted EBITDA at compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of 35% and 38%, respectively, since 2019.
Management still sees a long runway for growth in an estimated $14T addressable market, as organic growth opportunities, particularly international expansion, enabled by the acquired infrastructure and cross-sell potential across Global Blue and Smartpay’s merchant networks, are expected to drive 3-year revenue and Adjusted EBITDA CAGRs of 25%+ between 2025-2027. Today, FOUR trades at 6.2x FY27 EBITDA estimates, or a ~13% discount to its peer group (FIS, PYPL, XYZ, TOST, WEX, GPN, LSPD, FI) average multiple despite significant prospects for continued top-line growth and margin expansion.
How Management Allocates Capital
FOUR’s new CEO has reiterated management’s 3 priorities are – 1) customer acquisition, 2) product investments (R&D), and 3) M&A and share repurchases. Since FOUR’s returns on customer acquisition are so high, management ultimately views both product investment and M&A as levers to increase cash flow generation and free up more dollars to continue feeding their customer acquisition machine, which carries a payback period of less than 12 months. With pro forma net leverage at 3.7x as of 1Q26, near management’s stated 3.75x threshold, management appears focused on integrating its recent acquisitions of Global Blue and Smartpay and allowing earnings growth to drive leverage back toward FOUR’s historical low-3x range before pursuing additional meaningful M&A. Amid the recent drawdown in price, management has bought back $748MM (24.4% of market cap) worth of stock since the start of 2025, which leaves $400MM of remaining authorization (13.0% of market cap). The recent simplification of FOUR’s capital structure into a single-class structure increases transparency, and results in Isaacman owning more than 27% of the company today, further reinforcing alignment with investors.
We originally posted our investment case for FOUR on February 12, 2024.