MVP LIVE April 2026

Familiar Macro, Different Market Setup

Bill Miller IV, CFA, CMT
6:38 – 11:21

Key Takeaways

  • 2022 parallel—but better backdrop: Geopolitics are hitting growth again, but inflation is much lower today, leaving the economy in a stronger position.
  • Growth slowing at the margin: GDP expectations dropped sharply, driven by weaker consumer spending and housing.
  • Bond market caution: Yield curve flattening signals slower economic momentum.
  • Higher cost of capital: The easy-money era is over, reducing support for long-duration growth stocks.
  • Value still favored: Cash-generating, value-oriented stocks—especially SMID—remain better positioned.
  • Growth still expensive: Tech valuations are elevated, implying weaker future returns.

Bottom line: We think the current environment continues to support value over growth.

Why We Think Value Still Has Room to Run

Dan Lysik, CFA
11:22 – 23:20

Key takeaways:

  • Value leadership is broadening: Value stocks—especially small and mid caps—have significantly outperformed across market caps and continue to lead in down markets.
  • Market valuations remain elevated: Despite volatility, overall market multiples have re-expanded and remain above historical averages.
  • Expectations are high: Consensus forecasts call for above-average revenue and earnings growth, with margins already near historic highs—leaving little room for disappointment.
  • Mega-cap concentration is a risk: Market performance is heavily driven by a small group of large-cap stocks, with valuations and index weightings near historical peaks.
  • AI investment adds uncertainty: Rising capex is compressing free cash flow, with future returns dependent on growth and margin follow-through.
  • Growth remains expensive: High price-to-sales and valuation levels—especially in tech—suggest potential for underperformance.
  • Opportunity in small/mid caps: Valuation spreads are wide, investor positioning is light, and improving earnings create a setup for continued market broadening.

Bottom line: Elevated valuations, concentrated leadership, and high expectations increase risk in large-cap growth, while small- and mid-cap value stocks offer a more attractive, under-owned opportunity.

Miller Value Funds Update

Miller Income Fund

A high-yield, deeply discounted portfolio positioned to outperform in a higher-cost-of-capital environment.

  • Deep valuation discount: Income fund trades at ~10x price-to-free cash flow vs. ~34x for the S&P (~70% discount) as of 3/31/26.
  • Higher income profile: LMCLX Current Yield was 4.29% and 30-Day SEC Yield was 5.48% as of 3/31/26
  • Positioned for higher rates: Focus on cash-generative companies benefits from a world where capital has a cost.
  • Contrarian opportunity: Current market extremes (low yields, high valuations) favor “fading” into value/income strategies.
  • SMID cap exposure: 73% of Fund’s equity holdings are in small- and mid-cap (<$10B) as of 3/31/26.

Fact Sheet | Current Quarter End Performance | Holdings | Product Info

Miller Value Partners Appreciation ETF

A low-cost, actively managed ETF trading at a meaningful discount with strong alignment and value-oriented positioning.

  • Significant valuation discount (as of 3/31/26): ~10x price-to-free cash flow (~70% discount to S&P 500); ~9.4x EV/EBITDA (~42% discount to S&P 500); ~10.5x P/E (~55% discount to S&P 500)
  • Compelling relative value: Across multiple metrics, the ETF trades well below S&P 500 valuations.
  • Strong manager alignment: Managers are the largest investors in the fund.
  • Cost advantage: ~60 bps expense ratio
  • Active, concentrated strategy: High-conviction portfolio with independent management.

Fact Sheet | Current QE Performance | Holdings | Product Info

Miller Value Partners Leverage ETF

Aims to capture the upside of leveraged exposure through an actively managed, quantitatively driven strategy.

  • Risk-managed leverage: Uses active, quantitative signals to reduce drawdowns.
  • Designed for volatility: Aims to outperform in more turbulent market environments.
  • Manager alignment: Significant personal investment in the strategy.

Fact Sheet | Current QE Performance | Holdings | Product Info