Key Themes and Takeaways:

Uncertainty & Market Leadership

  • The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index hit a new all-time high in April 2025, surpassing the COVID-19 peak.
  • Uncertainty appears to be declining, signaling potential stabilization in policy and markets.
  • Going forward, we believe conditions favor a rotation into small cap, low-valuation names.

Valuation & Concentration Risk

  • Valuations are stretched: Over 25% of the S&P 500 trades above 10x sales, a historically rare and risky threshold.
  • Top 5 stocks now represent ~30% of the S&P 500’s market cap—the most concentrated in history.
  • Value’s share of the index is at a 50-year low, while growth dominates. This is a setup similar to 1999-2000, just before the tech unwind.

Small Cap Value Opportunity

Small cap valuations are deeply discounted:

  • Russell 2000 Value trades at 2+ standard deviations below its long-term relative valuation to large caps.
  • Even modest reallocation from large to small caps could produce significant performance shifts.
  • After large drawdowns, small/micro-cap value stocks have rebounded 57–74% historically.
  • Mid-2025 may mark the 7th 20%+ drawdown in 20 years, potentially setting up another strong rebound.

Macro Tailwinds for Small Caps

  • Rate cuts, faster earnings growth, deregulation, and favorable tax policies all support small caps.
  • Rolling 10-year relative returns for small cap value are at a 90-year trough — creating room for multi-year mean reversion.

Dollar Weakness. Cyclical Tailwind?

  • The U.S. dollar has fallen 10.7% as of 6/30/25, its worst start since 1973.
  • A weaker dollar supports nominal growth and boosts cyclical and small cap exposure.

Miller Income Fund: Evolution over 10+ years

The Income Fund is more concentrated and conviction-based than ever (as of 6/30/25):

  • Now holds 38 names (vs. 61 a decade ago)
  • Top 10 positions = 50% of assets
  • Current yield for LMCLX was 6.20% as of 6/30/25. The Fund’s dividend yield for the equities stood at 5.34% as of quarter-end, or roughly 400 bps higher than the S&P 500’s quarter-end indicated dividend yield, which recently fell to its lowest level since 2000 (1.25%)1
  • Trades at 70%+ valuation discounts across P/E, EBITDA, and free cash flow metrics.
  • Flexibility has enabled rotation away from underperforming bonds into higher-return equities.

MVPA ETF: Growth at a Discount

  • Miller Value Partners Appreciation ETF (ticker MVPA) skews growthier than the Income Fund but still offers 63–80% valuation discounts to the S&P 500.
  • While MVPA has flexibility to invest where we see opportunity in the market, the portfolio skews more small/mid cap value.
  • We’re seeing inflows – which we appreciate and also see as investor appetite for this market exposure in this environment

Bitcoin & Crypto Regulation Update

  • Regulatory wins for crypto in the U.S. House: Clarity Act (jurisdiction over tokens), Genius Act (stablecoin framework), CBDC ban (Nixon Bill)
  • Legislation grandfathers decentralized protocols like Ethereum and Solana as commodities.
  • Bitcoin remains the team’s core crypto position as its preferred for its proof-of-work model, decentralization, and first-mover advantages.
  • Exposure taken through value-oriented public companies (e.g., MicroStrategy), not miners or direct BTC holdings.